Friday night March Madness betting features a matchup between the surprising St. Mary’s Gaels and the Baylor Bears.  Baylor finished 3rd in the Big 12 this season with a 27-7 record.  Baylor had a harder time than expected against Sam Houston State in the first round, and then got past a very good Old Dominion team in the second round to get to this Sweet 16.  St. Mary’s finished second in the West Coast Conference regular season and then beat Gonzaga in the tournament final to earn the conference’s automatic berth.  The Gaels beat Richmond and Villanova to advance to this point.

MARCH MADNESS–BAYLOR VS. ST. MARY’S:

There’s a lot to like about this St. Mary’s team–they were a pointspread monster this season, boasting a 22-9 ATS mark.  They were 5-2 ATS as an underdog and an impressive 14-2 ATS in non-conference action.  The Gaels are paced by a great offensive player, center Omar Samhan who averaged 21.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.  In the NCAA tournament, Samhan has been even better scoring 29 points against Richmond and 32 against Villanova.  It’s important to keep in mind, however, that neither Richmond or Villanova had the size up front to do anything to stop him.

Baylor, on the other hand, does.  The Bears have two seven footers up front, and a total of five players 6’9″ or taller.  And with all due respect to St. Mary’s, Baylor may not be getting the respect they deserve in this matchup.  They won but didn’t cover against Sam Houston State in the opening round, but they faced a gimmick defense–a triangle and two zone–that took some time for them to adjust to.  Their second round foe, Old Dominion, is also a very good defensive team.  Both teams’ goal was to keep the ball away from the Bears’ brutally talented backcourt of Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.  It’s a big question whether St. Mary’s can do anything to slow down Baylor’s guard duo.

So the sum total of all of this is that Baylor has the bodies up front to contain St. Mary’s main weapon, but its doubtful that the Gaels can do anything to neutralize the Bears’ backcourt weapons.  Bears are an underrated side and this is a good matchup for them.

PLAY BAYLOR -4 OVER ST. MARY’S