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Added April 26th, 2010 by Scott
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Is Bill Belichick Really A Draft Genius?

By most accounts, Bill Belichick’s Patriots had another banner draft weekend. They moved up, down and all over, eventually ending up with 12 new players to scrutinize over the coming days and months. There’s no question Belichick is skilled at maneuvering his chess pieces throughout the draft process, but is he really a genius when it comes to selecting future stars?

Beginning with 2001, I’m going to review Belichick’s drafts to determine if he is deserving of his lofty reputation. Genius, or merely average? Let’s take a look.

2001 Draft – 10 total picks. Hits: 2 – Richard Seymour, Matt Light. Misses: 8 – Brock Williams, Kenyatta Jones, Jabarri Holloway, Hakim Akbar, Arther Love, Leonard Myers, Owen Pochman, TJ Turner

2002 Draft – 6 total picks. Hits: 3 – Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, Jarvis Green. Misses: 2 – Rohan Davey, Antoine Womack. On the fence: David Givens (career cut short by knee injury)

2003 Draft – 10 total picks. Hits: 5 – Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Tully Banta-Cain. Misses: 4 – Bethel Johnson, Cliff Kingsbury, Spencer Nead, Ethan Kelley. On the fence: Dan Klecko

2004 Draft – 8 total picks. Hits: 2 - Vince Wilfork, Ben Watson. Misses: 6 – Marquise Hill, Guss Scott, Dexter Reid, Cedric Cobbs, P.K. Sam, Christian Morton.

2005 Draft – 7 total picks. Hits: 4 – Logan Mankins, Ellis Hobbs, Nick Kaczur, James Sanders. Misses: 2 – Ryan Claridge, Andy Stokes. On the fence: Matt Cassel (one-year wonder or legit starter?)

2006 Draft – 10 total picks. Hits: 3 – Laurence Maroney, Dave Thomas, Steven Gostowski. Misses: 5 – Chad Jackson, Garrett Mills, Jeremy Mincey, Dan Stevenson, Willie Andrews. On the fence: 2 – Ryan O’ Callaghan, LeKevin Smith

2007 Draft – 9 total picks. Hits: 1 – Brandon Meriweather. Misses: 8 – Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenburg, Mike Richardson, Justise Hairston, Corey Hilliard, Oscar Lua, Mike Elgin, Justin Rogers

2008 Draft – 7 total picks. Hits: 1 – Jerod Mayo. Misses: 4 – Shawn Crable, Kevin O’Connell, Bo Ruud, Terrence Wheatley. On the fence: 2 – Jonathan Wilhite, Matt Slater

I left out 2009 since it’s too soon to evaluate. That’s eight drafts and 67 total picks. Belichick has hit on 21, done okay on 7 and missed on 39. That equates to roughly a 41% success rate, which isn’t too shabby. It’s not worthy of genius status, but anywhere close to 50% is more than acceptable.

Belichick is keenly aware how tough it is to discover future studs, which is one of the reasons why he accumulates extra picks each year. The more darts you have, the more chances you have to nail the bullseye.

Bill Belichick is a master motivator and head coach. Draft genius? Not really, but he’s better than most.

 
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3 Responses to “Is Bill Belichick Really A Draft Genius?”

  1. kurt says:

    you have to take into account that in 2007 Bill traded away two picks for Wes Welker and Randy Moss..Also the fact that he only gave up a fourth round pick for Moss…Givens is not on the fence as he was vital in the Patriots superbowl run and had knee problems only after leaving the patriots when Bill thought his value was up

  2. javaman says:

    Well, let’s look at the whole decade. In the 2000 draft New England again had 11 picks. The number one pick was given to the NYJ to get Belichick. Out of the remaining picks, I think that at least 3 of them had good careers. One is still working on a legendary one:

    J.R. Redmond
    Antwan Harris
    Patrick Pass
    Tom Brady

  3. javaman says:

    Well, let’s look at the whole decade. In the 2000 draft New England again had 12 picks. The number one pick was given to the NYJ to get Belichick. Out of the remaining 11 picks, I think that at least 3 of them had good careers. One is still working on a legendary one:

    J.R. Redmond
    Antwan Harris
    Patrick Pass
    Tom Brady

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