Randy Couture says he’s as explosive as he’s ever been as he makes the move back down to 205. Brandon Vera seems revitalized after winning 3 of his last 4 fights, dropping only a split decision to Keith Jardine. They’ve both fought heavyweight and light heavyweight. They both need wins badly. If Couture loses you’ll be reading stories about how it’s time for him to hang it up. If Vera loses you’ll be reading about how he’s nothing more than a gatekeeper. So how does this end?

Randy is not going to knockout Brandon Vera. He needs to get inside and tie up Vera, get the fight to the ground, control the pace of the fight and score points. Vera is a solid wrestler, but he’s not of the same the caliber as Couture. He’s also not as strong as Couture. Unlike the Minotauro fight, Randy does not have to worry about being subbed by Vera. If he can get inside, use his strength and get it to the ground, Couture will win by decision. If he can’t, he might have to get desperate in the last round and that’s where Vera could knock him out.

Vera has decent knockout power and strong Muay Thai skills. He works his kicks well and has fast hands. He needs to be checking Randy with leg kicks and looking for opportunities to score big rights. He doesn’t want Randy to get inside, get leverage or work dirty boxing. The idea for Vera should be to keep Couture at a distance and keep it off the ground. If he can do this, he could find the opening to land a big shot and end it.

So how does it end? I think Randy Couture has another win in him, and he’ll get it via decision against Vera at UFC 105.