In the US sports betting marketplace, NFL football is the undisputed king of the hill.  It dominates the consciousness of the wagering public, as well as representing the largest percentage of action for bookmakers.  Even among those who have never placed a bet at a sportsbook, the NFL has introduced concepts like point spreads and over/under totals.  For that reason, it’s a good place to start when trying to understand the basics of betting on sports.

POINT SPREAD WAGERS

The pointspread wager is the most common form of NFL football betting.  The pointspread was created to provide interest on both sides of a wagering proposition and to serve as an ‘equalizer’ between stronger and weaker teams.  The easiest way to explain pointspread wagering is by way of example.  The Monday Night Football game on November 2nd pitted the New Orleans Saints against the visiting Atlanta Falcons.  The Saints closed as 11 point favorites (sports betting shorthand notes the favorite with a ‘minus’ sign, so the Saints were -11 in that game).  The Falcons, conversely, were 11 point underdogs (expressed with a ‘plus’ sign, making the Falcons +11).

In a pointspread wager, a favorite must win the game by more than the pointspread for a bettor to win a bet on that team.  So in the example above, if you liked the Saints in the contest they’d have to win by 12 or more points for you to cash your bet.  If the margin lands right on the pointspread, it’s a ‘push’ and all wagers are refunded.

If you wager on the underdog, they must either win the game OR lose by less than the pointspread.  In the example above, a bet on the Falcons would cash if they won the game or lost by less than 11.  In reality, that’s exactly what happened as a late field goal made the final margin of victory 8 points and made bets on the Falcons winners.

Pointspreads are calculated not only based on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team, but also based on public perception.  The bookmaker’s goal isn’t to ‘predict’ who will win and by how much; rather it’s to equally divide the money coming in on a game on both sides of the proposition.   This is why going against ‘public’ teams is a sound handicapping concept—the actual pointspread may reflect their popularity more than their intrinsic talent resulting in a favorable situation for the bettor (called an ‘overlay’ in betting lingo).

There are countless strategies for handicapping NFL pointspread wagers, but it’s important for the beginner to remember that just because a team is “good” doesn’t make them an attractive wagering proposition.  At this writing, the defending Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have only covered two of their first seven games.  The San Francisco 49ers, on the other hand, have covered five and pushed one on their early season schedule.

MONEYLINE WAGERS:

Another form of NFL wagering is moneyline betting, where the numeric odds of victory have been converted into a ‘moneyline’.   Let’s look at the moneyline from the above referenced game:

New Orleans Saints -525
Atlanta Falcons +425

The concepts of ‘favorite’ and ‘underdog’ are still here (along with the ‘pluses’ and ‘minuses’) but instead of paying a “premium” in points to back the favorite you’re paying it in cold, hard cash.  In this example, a player who wanted to bet on the Saints would have to lay $525 for every $100 they wanted to win.  Moneyline underdogs are just the opposite—here, a Falcons bettor who bet $100 would win $425 should Atlanta pull the upset.  The difference between the price on the favorite and the ‘takeback’ on the dog is where the bookmaker makes his profit.

The most important concept for the beginner to remember is that the bigger the favorite, the higher the theoretical breakeven percentage you have to hit to turn a profit.  For a -110 straight bet, theoretical breakeven is 52.4% meaning that if you win 53% of your bets you’re making a profit.  If you’re betting a -250 moneyline dog, however, you have to hit over 70% of your bets just to turn a profit.  That’s why experienced bettors love to find opportunities to play moneyline underdogs as the opposite is true—the bigger the underdog, the lower your breakeven percentage.  For example, at +250 the theoretical breakeven percentage is 28.6%, meaning if you win 3 out of every 10 bets you’re making money!

OVER/UNDER TOTAL WAGERS:

The last of the common NFL straight bet wagers is the OVER/UNDER wager, also called a ‘totals’ bet.  The bettor tries to determine if the combined score of the two teams will be more or less than a set number (known as the ‘total’ on the game) and bet accordingly.  Let’s return to our previous example—if you had walked into a Las Vegas sportsbook or looked at an online odds feed before the Monday Night Football game referenced above you would have seen something that looked like this:

ATLANTA FALCONS  56
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11

As we learned above, the -11 means that the Saints are 11 point favorites.  The ‘56’ by the Falcons is the total on the game.  The bettor in this case would try to determine if the combined score in the game would be more than 56 points and bet OVER the total, or if it would be less than 56 points and go UNDER the total.  In this case, the final score was 35-27 Saints and since 35 +27 = 62 the game went OVER.

To the inexperienced bettor, this may seem very arbitrary but many pros love totals wagers preferring to handicap the tempo and ‘type’ of game that will transpire without having to pick a winner or loser.  To determine which side to bet on, experienced handicappers evaluate a wide range of factors including style of play, injuries and even the weather.