This is the first of two UFC 105 handicapping articles we’ll post today.  This one covers the undercard while the subsequent installment will cover the two main fights.

First of all, don’t forget that the event will be broadcast in the US on Spike TV Saturday night but it’ll be tape delayed from Manchester, England.  In other words, make sure to get your bets in on time as UFC 105 will actually start at 3 PM Eastern/12 noon Pacific.  If you want to follow the results live as they happen and not wait to watch the Spike coverage you can do so at this link:

UFC 105 live play by play coverage

Now, on to handicapping the card itself:  a couple of important concepts to keep in mind for UFC events held in the UK.  First of all, the UFC knows that UK fans are ‘homers’ and like to see local fighters, which is why that with the exception of the main event every fight features a competitor with UK roots.  They also know they like to see local fighters win, and many of the undercard matchups have been made to give the local boys the best shot of doing so.  Now I’m not saying the fix is in, but like the old saying goes ‘styles make fights’ and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva has no doubt found favorable matchups for the UK competitors.

Second, the judging at previous UK events has been oddly preferential to native fighters.  Perhaps the most glaring example of this was Michael Bisping winning a decision he didn’t deserve over Matt Hamill at UFC 75 in London.

By now you’ve probably figured out that a solid betting strategy for this event is to find UK fighters getting good value and bet them to win.  And that’s exactly what we’re going to do starting with the opening fight of the PPV event.  The lines here are from Bookmaker but as always shop around:

ROSS PEARSON VS. AARON RILEY

Pearson won the lightweight division on ‘The Ultimate Fighter US vs. UK’ and he’ll face an experienced vet in Riley.  Good chance this fight will go to a decision and we live the value price with Pearson in an even fight that could end up in the hands of the British judges.

BET ROSS PEARSON +165

MATT BROWN VS. JAMES WILKS

Similar handicap as above as the welterweight division winner from ‘TUF’ Wilks takes on journeyman Matt Brown.  Wilks has more ‘stopping power’ and a better chance of ending the fight inside the distance.  Otherwise it goes to the British judges.  Another ‘toss up’ fight that we’re getting plus money on with the UK fighter.

BET JAMES WILKS +138

MIKE SWICK VS. DAN HARDY

Swick has been pegged as a future top star in the UFC welterweight division for several years now but for some reason has never been able to cash in on the hype.  Hardy is the more experienced and better rounded fighter of the two though doesn’t have the same hype attached to him that Swick does.  Hardy comes off as not taking the sport seriously with is punk hair styles, but that’s far from the case as he trains with the best in the business including BJJ prodigy Eddie Bravo.  This fight is really an even matchup, and taking a sizable underdog in an even proposition is a longterm moneymaker.  Hardy also has the advantage of fighting at home in front of the UK judges and we love him here at +185.

BET DAN HARDY +185

Check back later today for our selections on the two main fights on the card:  Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang and Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera