Earlier, we brought you some general betting notes on UFC 105 and our picks and analysis on the undercard. Here’s our thoughts on the two ‘big’ fights on the card. As we mentioned previously, if you’re in the USA remember that the Spike TV broadcast of the event is tape delayed. The card will take place earlier in the day on Saturday from Manchester, England. If you want to follow the play by play live you can do so here:

UFC 105 live play by play

Now, let’s take a look at the two major fights on the card starting with the semi-final matchup. As before, the odds we’re using here are from Bookmaker but shop ‘em around for the best price. Bookmaker is also offering a variety of prop bets on the event and we’ll take a look at those tomorrow:

DENIS KANG VS. MICHAEL BISPING:

Michael Bisping is nominally the most popular native UFC fighter among British fans, but he’s lost a lot of his luster since his thunderous TKO loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100. Dan Hardy, who will fight on the undercard is on the verge of taking his place at the top of the UK fighter hit parade. As we discussed in our previous installment ‘styles make fights’ and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva always took great care to choose Bisping’s matchups carefully to give him the best chance to win. It’s not that he’s a bad fighter, but he’s just a limited fighter with good KO power and not much else. Denis Kang, on the other hand is a very talented and well rounded competitor. The rap on him is that he’s erratic and can look great sometimes and very ordinary other times. To his credit, most of his recent losses are to the very top of the food chain in terms of competition: Yoshihiro Akiyama (who may be the most underrated fighter in the world), Gegard Mousasi, and Kazuo Misaki. He lost his UFC debut to Alan Belcher, a defeat that doesn’t look as bad in retrospect since Belcher has proven to be a double tough competitor. This is really an important fight for both men, with their future in the UFC possibly riding on the outcome. It’s also a tough fight to handicap. Bisping is taller and rangier than Kang, which could be a big deal since Kang has been KO’d in the past. Kang, however, is really the better all around fighter and the question about him as always is his focus and preparation. Ultimately, there’s not much value on either side. Kang is a small favorite at -125, but at -105 there’s no real value in backing the underdog Bisping. I think Kang will win, but since successful sports betting is as much finding the right prices as ‘picking winners’ it’s not a fight I’m interested in betting on.

PASS

RANDY COUTURE VS. BRANDON VERA:

The main event will feature the UFC’s ageless wonder, Randy Couture, as he drops down to light heavyweight to take on perennial contender Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera. Vera started his career at heavyweight, but struggled against the top competitors at the weight losing back to back fights against Tim Sylvia and Fabrico Werdum. He dropped down to 205, which is a better weight for him and his only loss at the weight was a narrow split decision setback to Keith Jardine. It’s also Couture’s natural weight but the real issue here is how much ‘The Natural’ has left as a fighter. He’s in phenomenal shape for a 46 year old, but hasn’t won a fight since returning from a hiatus of over a year due to a contract dispute with the UFC. The reality is that even his UFC heavyweight title run, while impressive, was more a function of matchups than anything else. Couture’s relentless, pressure style was the worst possible matchup for champion Tim Sylvia as well as Gabriel Gonzaga, whom Couture beat in his only defense of the belt. Couture’s conditioning, experience and style is such that he won’t embarrass himself against most opponents but at the same time he’s likely past the point that he can win against top competition. As far as the betting odds go, we’re getting a good value on Vera due to his somewhat lower profile relative to the iconic Couture. Vera has more ways to win the fight, and he probably should be a -150 or higher favorite. Instead, it’s close to a ‘pick’em’ fight with Couture at -120 and Vera at -110. We’ll back Vera at the value price.

BET BRANDON VERA -110