When I was in the sports handicapping business professionally, I quickly learned there are some games that you have to have an opinion on.  Even if I have no wagering interest game, sometimes they’re just events that are high profile enough that everyone wants a handicapping take.  You’ll notice that a lot of the boiler room touts have ‘INSIDE WINNING INFORMATION’ on every big game that comes along.  They don’t, of course, and that’s not the way serious handicappers play it.  So we’ll give the disclaimer on this game that I always gave my clients.  This is just an opinion.  I’m not going to bet on this game, nor can I recommend that anyone else do so based on the long term value.  However if I *had* to play this proposition, this is how I’d do it.

ARMY VS. NAVY

There’s always a lot of interest in the Army/Navy game, partially due to the nature of the rivalry itself and partially due to the fact that there’s not much else in the way of college football going on until later in the month.  Navy has dominated head to head play of late, to the tune of 13-4 ATS since 1992.  In recent years, the disparity between the two teams has been even uglier, with Navy winning seven straight and covering six.  The last two years, Navy has outscored Army by a combined 72-3.  Ouch.

Navy already has a bowl game locked up, as they’ll play Missouri in the Texas Bowl.  Army could get a minor bowl bid with a win here, but this game is basically Army’s entire season.  And my thinking is that the line is too high and based exclusively on Navy’s dominance in the series over the past few years.  The hiring of former Cal Poly head coach Rich Ellerson was a great move for Army, and he no doubt realizes that even a competitive effort in this matchup will ingratiate him significantly to his bosses and Army supporters.

So, again, we’re not calling this an ‘official’ play but were we to bet this game the points and our respect for Ellerson would have us on Army to make this one fairly competitive.

RECOMMENDATION:  ARMY +14 OVER NAVY