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The Western Conference semifinal continues on Friday with the Oklahoma City Thunder visiting the Memphis Grizzlies for Game 6 of the series. The Thunder destroyed the Grizzlies 99-72 on Wednesday to claim a 3-2 series lead, and Memphis looks to take Game 6 in order to send the series back to Oklahoma City for a Game 7 on Sunday. The early betting line on this game has the Grizzlies favored by two points, and a total of 195.5. In this Grizzlies/Thunder game 6 betting preview we will present series data to date, each team’s performance versus the spread this postseason, and will finish off the betting preview with our prediction for Game 6.

Thunder/Grizzlies Series Data

• Game 1 (In Okl): Memphis Wins 114-101 (Memphis covers, game goes over)

• Game 2 (In Okl): Thunder Wins 111-102 (Thunder covers, game goes over)

• Game 3 (In Mem): Memphis Wins in OT 101-93 (Memphis covers, game goes under)

• Game 4 (In Mem): Thunder Wins in 3OT 133-123 (Thunder covers, game goes over)

• Game 5 (In Okl): Thunder Wins 99-72 (Thunder covers, game goes under)

As you can see from the above data, the team that has covered has also won the game outright. Three of the games have gone over, but one of those games was a triple overtime affair in which it would have gone under in regulation. In the games in Memphis, where Game 6 is being played, the teams have split with both of the games going into overtime. Both of the games in Memphis would have gone under had it not been for the overtimes. It is also interesting to note that Memphis made a furious comeback in Game 3 to send it to overtime, as they outscored Oklahoma City 23-10 in the 4th quarter.

Betting Data For Memphis At Home In Playoffs

• 4-1 Overall

• 4-1 Against the betting line

• 3 Games have gone over, 2 have gone under

As you can see, Memphis has been strong against the spread at home in the postseason. Though three Memphis home playoff games have gone over, the one triple overtime game skewed it in that direction. The other two Memphis games that went over did so by a mere 1 point.

Betting Data For Oklahoma City On The Road In Playoffs

• 2-2 Overall

• 3-1 Against the Betting Line

• 3 Games have gone under, 1 has gone over

The Oklahoma City Thunder have also been pretty good on the road against the betting line, posting a 3-1 record thus far. It is interesting to note that one of those against the spread wins was when they covered in Game 4 in Denver by a half point. Some betting shops had the line at 3 in that game rather than 3.5, so this game very well could have been a push. The only Oklahoma City road playoff game that has gone over the betting line was the triple overtime affair at Memphis.

My Pick For Game 6

I will be betting the under in this Game 6 matchup. Though we are working with limited playoff data, this data suggests that the under is the play for Game 6.The betting shops have certainly adjusted to this trend as evidenced by the following totals for games in Memphis this series – 200.5 in Game 3, 197.5 in Game 4, and 195.5 for Game 6. I just don’t think that they have adjusted enough as of yet. As stated above, Memphis home games have gone over 3 out of 5 times, but all five could have very well gone under. There was one triple overtime game, and two times in which the games went over by a single point. The triple overtime game was the only Oklahoma City road playoff game that went over the total. Though I like the under based strictly on the data, there are some other reasons that support this as well. Memphis understands that Oklahoma City has the superior athletes on their team, and that they have little shot to win if they get into an up and down game against the Thunder. I can guarantee you that Memphis coach Lionel Hollins has stressed to his team to slow the game down and pound the ball inside. Their backs are against the wall, and I fully expect them to stick to the game plan in Game 6. This game plan should help to keep the game under the betting total.