If you were with us last week, we nailed winners on both of our 1AA/FCS football championship plays with both Appalachian State and William & Mary cashing tickets. We’re down to the ‘final four’ now and this is definitely the strongest of the two games this week. We may end up with a play on tonight’s game between William & Mary and Villanova, but this is definitely the 1AA/FCS play of the weekend.
APPALACHIAN STATE VS. MONTANA: 1AA/FCS FOOTBALL SEMIFINALS:
It’s tough to go through the regular season and playoffs with an undefeated record at any level of football. Perhaps the most difficult dynamic is an undefeated regular season team meeting an opponent with a loss under their belt at the same level. While Montana is undefeated this year, Appalachian State is simply a powerhouse program. There was much mainstream sports media hysteria when the Mountaineers beat the University of Michigan outright a few years ago, but to those of us familiar with the program it wasn’t surprising. App. State was 1AA/FCS national champions in 2005,2006 and 2007. They were upset in the quarterfinals last year by Richmond (whom they, in turn, upset in this year’s quarterfinals last week) and have made a return to college football’s big game a focal point of their season.
More importantly, the Mountaineers have the best all around offensive weapon in FCS football. Armanti Edwards is a threat both running and passing and has insane speed and athleticism. The Mountaineers also have talent at the other skill positions, including running back and wide receiver.
Statistically, the App. State defense was down somewhat this season and their #34 ranked scoring defense appears to be a poor match for Montana’s #1 ranked scoring offense. Still, that ranking is somewhat misleading since they struggled early in the year but improved dramatically during the stretch run. Also misleading is their 11-2 record, with one loss a 5 point verdict to FBS/1-A East Carolina.
Montana is a very good team, but anyone whose followed sports understand the challenging psychological dynamic experienced by undefeated teams. Appalachian State’s losses came early in the year, and resulted in a refocused effort the rest of the way. They’re a program with extensive big game experience, and the best offensive weapon on the field in Armanti Edwards. We look for them to win outright and advance to the FCS Championship game.
PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE +4 OVER MONTANA
28 Responses to “FCS/1AA Quarterfinals: Appalachian State vs. Montana”
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Man, same ol’ same ol’. Appalachian State is a powerhouse program for sure, and what do you think Montana’s program is? The Griz are the winningest program in the FCS this decade. If you were anyone “who followed sports” as you put it, you would know that. The Griz have 2 national title as well pal. Do you think they got lucky or something? They beat the best that the east had to offer back then right? The team that beat Michiagan is in the past, yet everyone still holds them on that pedistal. The QB, ya, he’s a stud and nobody denies that. I’m not going to predict anything but I hope the Griz kick the crap out of these guys for their sake. I do realize, however, that the western teams will never get the respect that the east does. The only thing the Griz can do is to win it all.
Ironically, I’m kind of a west coast homer myself and I agree that on balance the programs west of the Mississippi–including Montana–don’t get the respect they deserve. I probably should have made note of the fact that the Grizzlies are a very successful program as well. Still, I like the value with App. State getting the points. Thanks for your comment!
How many times can someone make themselves so blatantly ignorant in the course of one article? Using a phrase like “anyone whose followed sports,” and then following it up with an opinion exposing an utter lack of knowledge about FCS football should be a disqualifying offense for anyone writing about sports. Let me cue you in to a few facts: no team in the FCS has more wins this decade than the Montana Grizzlies, no team has appeared in more National Championships, no team has more consecutive playoff berths, no team (except Oklahoma in the 50′s) at any level has more consecutive conference championships, and no team anywhere, at any level has a higher home win percentage. These are the facts douchebag. The Griz are the unquestioned powerhouse of FCS football, and when we put App. State in its place in the REAL Big House tomorrow we know we still won’t get the respect we command from the eastern sports network (otherwise known as espn). But we will have owned your johnny-come-lately “powerhouse” program- one that will fade into obscurity just like Marshall, Youngstown State, Georgia Southern, and all the other “powerhouse” programs that haven’t kept pace with the Griz in the last 20 years. Do your homework next time, or just spare us all your idiocy.
I think you’ve misunderstood my function here at SportsUntapped. I’m here to handicap games and find wagering value. If you’re looking for rah rah crap for either team, you’ll need to find it elsewhere. Like it or not, based on a number of statistical simulations and score projections the wagering value is on Appalachian State. They may win, they may lose but if I’m doing my job finding this value over the long haul I’ll be making money–which is what I’ve done for the past twenty years. I sometimes have to oversimplify this for my pithy writeups on this site since posting graphs and Excel spreadsheets wouldn’t be as entertaining or as beneficial for SEO purposes.
I have nothing but respect for the Montana program and it would serve my purposes just as well should they win by two or lose by 50. Frankly, I could care less about the names on the uniforms since I just look at the statistical data. It really doesn’t matter to me in the big picture which team wins. If I’m on the value side–which in this case is App. State–and I’m right more than 53% of the time I’m in the black. Aside from that, which team wins or loses is completely irrelevant. You obviously have a lot invested in this emotionally while to me its simply another wagering opportunity among the thousands I encounter every year.
In any case, I wish your team the best.
Hey Jason, dude, calm yourself. No doubt Montana has a great program, but this whole “higher home winning percentage” and consecutive playoff berths, etc is a bit much. When you have to cite all that stuff, you make yourself look rediculous.
You guys play a weak-ass schedule, year in and year out. That makes any statement about home win percentage or consecutive playoff schedules a bit of a reach.
One team in all of I-AA/FCS history is known for losing the big game…..Montana.
That is the record that everyone knows UM for.
As an App graduate and a strong supporter of our football team, I don’t understand why the Montana folks are so upset over an article and game projections. If you search the internet, you have all types of articles, and you have all types of opinions. It doesn’t matter what happen last year or over the past decade, for it’s all about who’s best tomorrow. App and Montana have great programs, and I don’t see anyone disrespecting any of these programs. We hear tons about Montana here in the south, so I don’t know what you mean about somebody or nobody gives you respect. The Michigan win is in the past, but there are players who were part of that team. More importantly, the Michigan win gives ALL those teams in the FCS a little more attention and respect. That win over Michigan was indirectly a WIN for all FCS programs. Well, the past is just the past, and it don’t matter about records at this point. This is why they play the game, but I can assure you that both teams have the national media respect. If games were won on statistics and past, Cleveland wouldn’t have kicked Pitts backside last night. Good luck to Montana tomorrow, but I hope ASU really kicks that backside. Peace!
Yes this is so true about the Montana the schedule the teams they play and you think they are in the same league as APP STATE! come on man get real. But don’t you worry where commin and it won’t be pretty. Lord let us have mercy on them!!
To angry Jason… Youare correct in that Montana has the most wins this ecade but against who my friend?? MSU Northern, Carroll College and Montna Tech? Really??? You’re seriously wondering why Montana doesn’t get the respect?? You took many liberties in your uninformed diatribe about APP State being a has been. The fact is the Southern conference is the SEC of FCS 1-A football with perennial stalwarts like Furman, Georgia Southern, Wofford and a rising Elon program. ASU plays schools like ECU (2-time C-USA champion under Skip Holtz), NC State University, Michigan (ever heard of that school?) and Wake Forest year in and year out. We were roughly 30 seconds from handing ECU its first loss of the season with our backup quaterback!!! Oh and we also have this kid named Armanti Edwards. Perhaps you’ve heard of him?? He won this little award last year called the Walter Payton award.
So please don’t start with that west coast crap about no respect. I live here in North Carolina and I know about Montana and respect the hell out of what they’ve been able to do. Curious as to why people bet on App State?? It’s called 3 time consecutive national champions. We get the love and respect from sports fans, coaches and gamblers because we’ve earned it. Not to mention we’re undefeated when we are televised on ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU. Guess what, I just looked and we’e playing on ESPN so that does not bode well for you my western friend.
Yes we stubbed our toe last year against Richmond but we’re back Grizwald and at 4:00 EST tomorrow we’re loaded for bear; Grizzly bear. Your “big house” doesn’t know what a real FCS 1-A stadium even looks like, you and your pathetic 15,000+ fans if you’re lucky.
Yep! Pat, you said all my brother! Jason, you need to go back to being that armchair quarterback and order a large pizza because you going to see a real team show up tomorrow. I did look up the teams you played this year, and I was honestly surprised. I was surprised that some of those schools you played actually had a football team. It’s no big deal for APP STATE you play in front of 50,000 each week considering we play real football teams.
Jason is all too funny with the reference of the “Real Big House”. Sounds like he was picked on as a kid and still struggles with building some confidence. Two hand touch is over tomorrow!
If you want to be considered a top notch program, Montana needs to quit being scared of playing the big boys. I guess they think it’s more important to be undefeated. App has played Wake, Clemson, LSU, Michigan, ECU (who rolled over Houston last week), and they are scheduled to open Va Tech and Florida in the coming years. Can’t be afraid to run with the big dogs, if you want to be considered a elite program. Richmond whiped their feet with you guys last year! Delaware’s Joe Flacco was high and mighty until my boys made him look like Mary Poppins with a football.
Ok… I am not commenting on the article itself as it is only a prediction based on statistics! (however I do like you pick)
I do have a comment for the loyal Griz fan Jason. You sir are the only one showing any “idiocy”. As “Touchdown” mentioned having a high win percentage is easy when you play a very weak schedule including games against Div II schools. Your consecutive conference championship streak is nice however you do play in one of the weakest conferences in FCS. App has 5 straight in the SoCon. The last time you played a SoCon team (at your big house) it didn’t turn out so well for you did it? And another thing about your “REAL” Big House… During the regular season this year App had a higher average attendance at THE ROCK! btw that was around 25,000 and the “fake” Big House averaged somewhere around 110,000. And we all know this is a different team than the one that shocked the world, however several of our key guys did play in that game, most importantly THE Armanti Edwards! Montana does in fact have the most championship game “appearances” but how many have they won? App has 3!
Also, how can you “command” respect (which I assure you Coach Moore and our guys give you) when you have done nothing to earn it, other than win a bunch of games with a cupcake schedule? Either way this is going to be a great game between two good teams and I cannot wait! I will give you credit for one thing…at least you didn’t come on here talking about how it is going to be really COLD and LOUD like many of your fellow Griz fans. Having said all of that…..I wish you luck!
Dear Mr. Tillman…..You can believe what you want if it makes you feel better. The Griz have a hard time scheduling any FBS schools to play. Beating Michigan on a down year is like beating Oregon State. The Pac 10 wants nothing to do with the Griz, and neither do Boise State, Idaho, or Nevada; teams that where in the Big Sky Conference. All I know is that in FCS we play the games to see who is the best team. As for the 15,000+ “pathetic” fans, well it is closer to 25,000+ “pathetic” fans. There is also a 26′ × 36′ video screen, the largest screen in an FCS football stadium. I guess that if this isn’t a real FCS 1-A stadium, than I don’t know what one is. The Griz never play Northern, Carroll, or Tech for they are NAIA schools, although the griz had a spring scrimmage against Carroll several years ago. I don’t claim to know much about App State other than that I’m looking forward to the game….P.S. you should check your spelling for it can make your intelligence look suspect. I hope that it is not a reflection of an App State education.
Check out this link…http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Internet/attendance/FCS_AVGATTENDANCE.pdf
As a huge Montana fan, I’d also like to see them take on some tougher teams. I don’t think they schedule out of fear, though. There aren’t a lot of top-notch FCS teams within a thousand miles of Missoula, and they have to consider travel expenses and students’ time away from class in scheduling out-of-conference games. Also, Montana sells a lot of tickets to home games, so the Griz have an unusually large economic incentive to pay smaller schools to come here. All that said, I’m excited that we’ve scheduled regular-season games against App State for the next two years! Let’s hope the Griz head into those games with a winning streak. Go Griz!
Frank, Mich was 9-4 that year, beat Fla in a bowl game and finished ranked 18th. App had higher reg. season attendance this year, but UM passed us w/ the playoff games.
I do agree with App State fans about UM playing a lack schedule. But, you suit up and play your schedule and win your games. App State, you have not played such an amazing schedule are you are claiming.
App State, you played ECU for the first game of the year. Who was up more for the game? Visiting App State, hoping for another FBS upset? Or ECU playing some random non conference school for the first game of the season
Even if they played a FBS school, we would be in the same position. Here is the only comparison us Griz fans can make for FBS competition. SDSU played U of Minnesota and lost by 3 points (on Nov. 14th) and did not give up an offensive touchdown to the Gophers (who are going to a bowl). Minnesota then lost to #15 ranked Iowa, but did not give up an offensive touchdown. Griz score 61 points against a solid SDSU defense, held the #1 scoring offense, of SFA, to 0 points and 10 turnovers.
Griz do have a great team and tradition; those who make the trek to this beautiful part of the country will soon find this out. We are confident in our team and our supporters. Our stadium is something special; and probably makes more noise than ‘The Rock’ based on its architecture (it is fully enclosed). App State will find that out
We went into James Madison last year and beat another superman (though he only played a couple of quarters).
I am watching the W&M and Nova game now and you guys say we play high school teams? This game is ridiculous. The teams are not as good as their conferences are touted; and the stadium is half full.
Griz will find a way to win and I think App State is a bit worried. We have a bunch of dreamer kids from small towns in MT with less than 1000 people, who could care less how many awards and medals the opposing team brings with them.
Tony Romo came into Washington Grizzly Stadium, and came out with a 45-13 loss; we are not afraid of Payton Award winners.
It will be a good game against great teams and traditions.
Last week’s attendance for the Griz against SFA was 22,438 and against SDSU it was 19,197 for an average of 20,817. App State’s home playoff game attendance was 12,216.
Your heart felt loss will be somewhat sympathized as a Marshall team came in and stole our(my) glory on our home field in the semi-finals 1987. We were all set to go to Idaho, just as you all are awaiting a return trip to Chattanooga. At least with your home loss today, you will have evaded the embaressment of losing in Chatty 2 years in a row. that too would have been unprecedented.
Oh Frank…. You’re actually going to hit me with type-o’s. Really?? You are going to hit me on spellcheck when I’m feverishly pecking away at my computer breaking down the cold hard facts 1-AA FCS football for you. Good to go. At least I know where we stand.
Okay, let’s take this in baby steps. The year App State beat Michigan was a year that Michigan was ranked #5 going into the season. They were atually predicted to win out, take the Big 10 title and compete for national championship. On their roster they had a few players you may remember: Jake Long #1 overall draft pick, Mike Hart (one of the best runnuing baks in the country) Mario Manningham (another high draft pick) and if that’s not enough, Chad Henne (starting QB for Dolphins). It’s really silly and shows utter lack of football knowlege to try and somehow degrade App’s victory over a very good Michigan team. Of course they sucked after that. Wouldn’t you be demoralized knowing your season is ultimately over after a humiliating loss like that. Michigan was in dissaray for next few weeks and could never get over the most shocking upset in college football history. It’s very annoying when folks say “well Michigan had on off year”. No they weren’t very good because the ASU’s spread offense gave them fits. And like I said, 1-A FBS one loss like that and national title dreams vanish.
I was wrong about your stadium so for that I give you a nod, although it’s really not a big eal when you consider we’ve played teams like LSU, Clemson and Auburn. I commend you on having passionate fans and a rich football traition but pithey comments about spelling and defending your lack of scheduling FBS opponents for whatever reason, diminshes your arguments.
I totally understand your concern. You’ve never, and more importantly Montana’s players have never witnessed speed like we have at skill positions. Not only speed but hard hitting, angry guys that play the game like Ray Lewis hopped up on 5-hour energy drinks.
Loaded for Bear…. Enjoy the gmea.. (little spelling error for ya)
(GRIZZLES) SSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHH!!! YOU HEAR THAT THERE COMING!!!
GO APP STATE GIVE THEM HELL!!!!!
interestingly, the “winningest” program hasn’t won the chamionship since 2001- can they still win the big one? I don’t think so. Apps will rule!
Let’s go Mountaineers! This is Armanti’s last year. We have to win so he can have 3 our 4 years of National Championships. I guarantee that App State will be coming to play. Expect Armanti to shine. I imagine he’ll be playing like it could be his last collge game ever… My money is on the Mountaineers. The’ll be more fired up than they were for Michigan. Regardless, it should be a fun one to watch.
Good luck to all.
Well, it’s over, gang. App State gave it their best shot and couldn’t beat the Griz. Great game – I was there. Edwards is the real deal. So is a kid from a Class C school in Montana, Chase Reynolds. 193 yards in 24 carries, two TD’s. And in the end, the Montana D was just too much for the Mountaineers. You naysayers about football west of the Missisippi should just own up to the fact that there are 2 premiere FCS programs, App State and Montana.
Yo F**k faces from back east. Take your predictions and strength of schedules and shove it up your a**es Deliverence style. I get soooooo sick of hearing how amazing the conferences from the east coast are superior. Come on, a team calle Elon, that is what we call the east coast freshman who cannot hold their alcohol.
Griz will f**k up Nova next week in their introduction to the National Championship game. What is your predicition now David Glisan? As I mentioned before, Walter Payton award winners are not welcome into Washington Grizzly Stadium….See you in a couple of years App State as you rebuild, because Griz are going strong….very strong……..I hope that you are scared…very scared….
In my case this is amusing since I live roughly 1000 miles *west* of Montana. So for me at least, Missoula *is* ‘back East’. In any case, very entertaining game and a commendable effort by both teams. At this point, I’m leaning toward Montana in the championship game and bracing for an influx of Villanova supporters telling me I don’t know what I’m talking about
David, thanks for previewing FCS games. I thought the Appy pick wasn’t a bad pick, even though I’m a Griz fan. Anyway it’s good to see some attention to FCS football.
Nice blog post – I found your site through AOL.