“Everything popular is wrong”

That’s one of my favorite quotes, written by the great Oscar Wilde in ‘The Importance of Being Earnest’.  It’s applicable in many disciplines, but none more so than sports gambling.  Not only does it succinctly describe the contrarian mindset, its a good rule to keep in mind when listening to mainstream sports media talk about sports betting.  They simply don’t know what they’re talking about.   One frequently heard canard (and there are many) is that only degenerates bet on low profile sporting events while, conversely, betting on ‘big events’ like the Superbowl is just something that ‘regular guys’ do.  It usually goes like this:

Sports radio moron 1:  ’The 1-AA/FCS football playoffs are taking place this weekend.  Did you know you can actually bet on these games’?

Sports radio moron 2:  ’No way dude!  Take my advice, if you’re betting on 1-AA football you’ve *really* got a gambling problem’

Both guys:  ’Yuk, Yuk, Yuk, Wakka, Wakka, Wakka’

The reality is almost a diametric opposite from this view.  The best wagering value frequently is found off the beaten path.  Several of my associates have bet 1-AA football for years and dominate it.  As in 60% winners would be a ‘down year’ domination.  One of my associates in particular almost killed 1-AA wagering altogether with his weekly rampage against the dwindling number of books with the stones to offer it.  He got out of the game a few years ago, and since then 1-AA/FCS wagering has made a comeback with more and more books offering lines on ‘extra games’.

The FCS Quarterfinals are this weekend and we’ve got two plays, one of which we’ll give you here.  We’ll give you the second play in a subsequent post.  Quite a few books take action on the FCS playoffs, including Bookmaker and DSI:

FCS QUARTERFINALS:  WILLIAM & MARY VS. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

This is a very simple handicap:  William & Mary is the better team, and they’re getting points.  On paper, its a pretty good matchup with two productive offenses against two decent defenses.  Only William & Mary has the *better* defense of the two teams, with the Tribe ranked #1 in rushing defense and #2 in scoring defense.  The Salukis aren’t bad on defense (ranked #8 nationally) but the Tribe is downright stifling.  Last week they dominated a potent Weber State team 38-0, holding the Wildcats to only 161 yards of total offense.  While Southern Illinois relies more on a rushing game, W&M has a very diversified offense led by all CAA running back Jonathan Grimes and heady QB R.J. Archer who is one of the best in the country at the position.

Keep an eye on William & Mary as they could go all the way to the finals.  Unfortunately, the ‘secret’ may be out after a relatively easy win this week.

PLAY WILLIAM & MARY +2′ OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS