Yesterday, we talked about BYU vs. Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl and today we’ll turn our attention to the other major college football program in the Beehive State.  The University of Utah travels to San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium to take on California in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday, December 23.  Like the Las Vegas Bowl, this game pits the Mountain West Conference against the Pac 10 but the dynamics in this game are decidedly different:

POINSETTIA BOWL–UTAH VS. CALIFORNIA

California started the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country, ranking in the top 10 in many preseason polls despite never playing in a BCS bowl in the Jeff Tedford era and not really having the talent to deserve it.  There was even some misguided talk that Cal would be a contender for the Pac 10 championship, but early season blowout losses to Oregon and USC dispelled those notions.  Despite these blowouts, they continued to be overvalued by the mainstream media and betting public the rest of the way which gives us some nice line value to work with here.  The Bears started the season with three straight wins/covers against overmatched opposition, only to go 3-6 against the pointspread the rest of the way.

The University of Utah didn’t do well against the pointspread either this season, but for entirely different reasons.  They were somewhat ‘overvalued’ in comparison with the 2008 Utes that went 13-0 straight up and 8-4 against the spread.  That team had a potent offense led by Brian Johnson, but the 2009 Utah squad was more of a ‘grind it out’ type of team.  This put them in a position where they were frequently a large pointspread favorite but didn’t really have the personnel to cover large margins.  Despite the unfavorable comparisons to the 2008 Utes in some areas, the 2009 team was arguably more fundamentally sound including better tackling and overall toughness.

Utah may not have the explosive playmakers on offense that California boasts, but they have the better overall defense and a much more reliable offense.  The Utes are also a team that can control tempo and make opponents play at “their” pace and style.  They’re also very familiar with the Cal offense, as Bears’ coordinator Andy Ludwig had the same role at Utah for the previous four seasons.  And for all of the hype surrounding Bears’ head coach Tedford we’ll even give the coaching edge to Utah’s Kyle Whittingham who may be the most underrated coach in college football.

In our opinion Utah is the better team, but surprisingly they’re a +3 underdog here.  Our best guess is that it’s based on the public perception that the Pac 10 is superior top to bottom than the Mountain West.  Another factor may be the casual fan’s preference for an exciting, potentially explosive offense against a fundamentally sound methodical unit.  For our purposes, it doesn’t really matter.  Utah is 8-0 straight up in bowl games during the past decade and going back to 1992 is on a 9-3 SU/ATS bowl run.  They’ll win outright here, and playing Utah at +3 is a great value.