This game was supposed to have worked out a little differently, since the only time Hawaii bowl games draw well is when the University of Hawaii is involved.  This game would have been an intriguing matchup locally had the Rainbows faced SMU, as June Jones used to coach at Hawaii. Unfortunately, Hawaii wasn’t able to beat Wisconsin in their final game and become bowl eligible, so the resulting contest between SMU and Nevada will likely be played before a largely empty grandstand.

ALAMO BOWL:  SMU VS NEVADA

SMU deserves a ton of credit for even being here, in particular head coach Jones.  He took one of the most underperforming programs in college football–off of back to back 1-11 seasons no less—and led them to a winning record in his first year at the helm.   Jones  is most famous as the architect behind the pass happy ‘run and shoot’ offense, but this year the Mustangs emphasized their running game and increased their total rushing yardage over 300% from the year before.  This was a best case scenario for several reasons in addition to making the best use of the talent on hand.  It kept things simple for true freshman quarterback Kyle Padron, who was forced into service after Bo Levi Mitchell went down midway through the season.  It also help compensate for SMU’s lack of defensive depth by controlling the ball and minimizing the time the thin stop unit needed to be on the field.

The bad news for SMU, is that Nevada runs the football better than any team in the country.  Their rushing numbers this year are downright insane.  The Wolfpack ran for 4,347 yards or an average of 362 per game.  They average 7.6 yards per rush, and boast an NCAA record three 1,000 yard rushers in Vai Tua, Colin Kaepernick and Luke Lippincott.  Their three headed rushing monster actually outperformed the already impressive team average by producing 7.7 yards per rush.

So the Mustangs are going to get blown out, right?  Not so fast—while the SMU defense is nothing special, Nevada’s may be even worse.  They’re particularly vulnerable to the pass finishing 118th nationally in pass defense and allowing a NCAA worst 31 passing touchdowns.  Patron is a fundamentally decent passer, and it’s not like June Jones has any shortage of passing schemes at his disposal.  That’s why the total here is so high—both teams will be able to move the ball and score points against each other’s defense.

SMU is genuinely excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 1984 and while they’re outgunned in terms of talent they’ll definitely come to compete.  Nevada is the biggest pointspread bowl favorite on this year’s slate, and they simply don’t have the defense to make any sort of margin comfortable.  SMU was a decent moneymaker for college football betting fans this season, and particularly as an underdog where they went 6-1 against the number.

In terms of talent, Nevada is clearly the better team.  Still, the game means more to SMU and they’ve got the firepower to put some points on the board against a porous Wolfpack defense.  Most important, keep in mind that betting on big bowl game favorites has been a ticket to the poor house over the long haul.  Since 1974, bowl game favorites of 14 or more points have only covered the spread 37% of the time.  The line has moved against SMU somewhat since the opening, but the difficulty that lare favorites have covering in bowl games remains. Nevada may have the offense necessary to produce a margin, but their defensive liabilities will let SMU hang around and won’t ever be able to close the proverbial ‘back door’.  While it’s hard to go OVER such a big total, it’s well within the realm of possibility for these two teams to combine for 80 or 90 points.  The better value position, however, is taking the Mustangs plus the points.

BET SMU +12′ OVER NEVADA

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