A ton of college basketball betting action on Saturday, and this might be the highest profile game of the bunch.  John Calipari could run for governor of the Bluegrass State and win at this point due to the job he’s done in his first year as coach of the Kentucky Wildcats.  UK is 14-0 and ranked #3 in the country which has exceeded even the wildest expectations of their fanbase.  Rick Pitino has a good looking team at Louisville, and they’re 10-3.  They lost to a good UNLV team on the road, but also lost a couple of head scratchers to Western Carolina and UNC-Charlotte in early December.  Maybe the players were distracted with their final exam studies.  I’m kidding of course.

LOUISVILLE VS. KENTUCKY

Obviously this a huge rivalry game by definition, but there’s even more fuel on the competitive fire this year.  Not the least of these is the Wildcats’ hot start, which makes them an even bigger target for their in-state rivals.  Then there’s the personal rivalry between the head coaches.  Some of you may remember pro wrestler Nikolai Volkoff back in the 1980′s WWE.  They did a shtick where he’d sign the Russian National Anthem before every match, which was intended to ‘draw heat’ from the crowd.  To further entice the assembled throngs of wrestling fans, ring announcer Howard Finkel would always ask the crowd for ‘silence and respect’ while Volkoff sung the anthem.  Needless to say, this was a de facto invitation to heckle him.  John Calapri did essentially the same thing this week when he asked UK fans to refrain from making negative and/or obscenity laced comments directed at Pitino during this game.   Of course he doesn’t for a minute expect the stadium full of drunken Wildcat supporters to exercise discretion in their treatment of Pitino.  He might as well have said ‘This guy is a jackass, let him have it’ as it would have had the same effect.

Here’s a few things to keep in mind about the Louisville/Kentucky series.  It’s been a very evenly contested series both straight up and against the spread.  In the last 12 meetings, the tally is 6-6 SU/6-6 ATS.  On the Wildcats’ home court?  Try 3-3 SU/3-3 ATS.  Louisville has also been one of the best road teams  in college hoops over the past few years.   They’ve 0-1 in their lined road games this year (the loss at UNLV) but over the past three years they’re 16-5 SU/17-4 ATS in away games.  UK is already showing some signs of being ‘overvalued’ by the betting public due to their fast start, and they’re only 3-5 ATS at home.

Another important thing to remember is that while Kentucky is a brutally talented team they’re also a very young team.  They start two freshman and a sophomore including their best player, John Wall.  Wall is an insanely talented player, but he’s still a freshman.  Much of UK’s early success has been a function of their overwhelming talent and athleticism, but Louisville has the personnel and coaching to slow the game down and the outside shooting to open up the inside.  The Wildcats’ players have already started talking publicly about going undefeated this season.  While you have to admire their confidence, they may be getting ahead of themselves somewhat.  In an evenly contested rivalry where we’re getting a decent amount of points the underdog is definitely the play.  It wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see Louisville win outright.

PLAY LOUISVILLE +7′ OVER KENTUCKY