Only four college basketball betting opportunities on the board at sportsbooks worldwide on Sunday, but all of the games are big ones.  On tap are four conference championship battles with automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament for the winner.  The Atlantic 10 Tournament will pit Temple vs. Richmond, the Big 10 features Ohio State vs. Minnesota, the ACC final is Georgia Tech vs. Duke and the SEC Championship will be contested between Mississippi State and Kentucky.  We’ve got plays in two of these games.  Both games start bright and early for those of us on the West Coast…both of our plays are based on a similar premise:

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP–MISSISSIPPI STATE VS. KENTUCKY 10 AM PACIFIC/1 PM EASTERN

We’ve talked about this already–the SEC doesn’t have a representative on the NCAA selection committee.  Currently, Mississippi State is on the ‘bubble’ list for most decent bracket predictions.  They’re playing a Kentucky team that already has a #1 seed sewn up.  You’ve got SEC referees and a situation where if Mississippi State wins the conference gets an extra team in the ‘Big Dance’.  So what do you think happens?

Here’s what we wrote at the beginning of the tournament:

There’s another interesting dynamic at work in the SEC tournament–the conference doesn’t have a representative on the NCAA selection committee this year.  What this means is that a ‘bubble’ team from another conference is more likely to make the cut than a similarly credentialed team from the SEC.  That’s part of the scam that is the NCAA–you won’t see any out and out screwjobs in most years (at least not involving the major conferences) but NCAA tournament bids mean money and exposure for the conferences and to the committee members go the spoils.  There’s three teams that will definitely get a NCAA bid–Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee each of whom have 23 or more wins.  But there’s three more teams with 20 or more wins and they’re not all going to make it.  Of these teams, 20 win Florida may have a better shot at an at-large bid than 21 win Mississippi or Mississippi State for a number of reasons–not the least of which is their back to back NCAA championship wins in 2006 and 2007.   One thing is for certain, and that’s that at least one very good SEC team will be NIT bound.  Most field projections have the SEC getting only three or four teams in the field including their automatic bid for the conference champion.

This puts the SEC in a position where it will benefit the conference financially and otherwise if anyone *but* Kentucky, Tennessee or Vanderbilt wins their tournament.  Since its going to be hard for the selection committee to deny all three of the 20+ win ‘bubble teams’,  a surprise winner in the SEC is really their best case scenario and probably the only way the conference can get five teams into the field.  There’s been suggestions in the past that situations such as this have influenced the way games are officiated, with ‘underdogs’ getting preferential calls to help facilitate their victory over a team that’s already a shoo-in for an at-large bid.  More often than not, however, the coaches are aware of the scam and while they won’t go out and tank games won’t put a lot of emphasis on a conference tournament title.  A team like Kentucky has their sights on a bigger goal anyway, so there’s always the possibility of a lookahead even without the other disincentives of them winning the conference title.

There’s a couple of other factors at work, both favoring Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs have the motivation of winning one game and being assured a NCAA tournament bid.  They may get in if they lose, but if they don’t its out of their hands.  Kentucky is not only assured of getting in to the NCAA tournament but are all but certain to get a #1 seed.  Classic spot where one team’s focus is on the here and now against an opponent looking ahead to their bigger goal.

Additionally, it works against ‘public perception’ since we’re using a team that doesn’t resonate with ‘Joe SixPack’ against one of the biggest ‘public’ teams in the sport.  Simply playing against teams the public loves to bet on is more often than not a good value position and with a confluence of other factors favoring the underdog Bulldogs its an even stronger position.  Mississippi State likely wins outright, but we just need them to be competitive to cash our ticket.

PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE +7′ OVER KENTUCKY

ACC CHAMPIONSHIPS–GEORGIA TECH VS. DUKE 10 AM PACIFIC/1 PM EASTERN

The ACC isn’t in quite the same position as the SEC and could get as many as 7 teams in the ‘Big Dance’.  One thing is certain and that’s that Duke is already in.  A #1 seed may or may not be a sure thing, but the Blue Devils will be seeded no worse than #2.  Georgia Tech isn’t as sure about their plans for the next few weeks–most bracket projections have them in the field, but most also say they’re one of the last 4 or 5 teams in.  They had 22 wins, but also had a losing conference record.  Of course none of that will matter if they beat Duke here.  They split a pair of games with the Blue Devils this year, with each team winning at home.  The intangibles don’t set up quite as well for Georgia Tech as they do for MSU in the previous play but the same basic concept applies.

PLAY GEORGIA TECH +9 OVER DUKE