Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942
College Basketball Betting Free Picks For Saturday: Mustang Ranch – SportsUntapped.com
Today is
Added February 27th, 2010 by David Glisan

College Basketball Betting Free Picks For Saturday:  Mustang Ranch
Warning: mysqli_query(): (HY000/1030): Got error 28 from storage engine in /home/sportsun/public_html/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 1942

There’s a ton of college basketball betting opportunities on the board at your local sportsbooks today, but value is not always easy to find at this point of the season.  Some teams are having their ‘Senior Day’, meaning they give inordinate playing time to upperclassman stiffs.  Other teams quit caring a lot time ago, and even good teams may have decided to ‘pack it in’ until the conference tournaments begin.  For that reason, this Saturday’s card is an especially tricky one fraught with untold danger.

One concept that usually works, however, is one we refer to often in NHL handicapping:  “styles make fights”.  An effective (for us) stylistic matchup isn’t subject to vagaries like who plays and, to a lesser extent, the focus or motivation of the team.  Some styles result in bad matchups for some teams, and by finding those matchups we can often find line value.  That looks to be the case in this Conference USA battle between Houston and SMU:

HOUSTON VS. SMU:

On paper, this looks to be a pretty even matchup accurately reflected by the ‘pick em’ price on the game.  Houston is 14-13 overall and 6-7 in conference, SMU is 13-14 overall 6-7 in conference.  Throw in home court advantage, and the line suggests that Houston is a marginally better team on a neutral floor and that very well may be the case.  What isn’t evident from the records or the pointspread is that this is a bad stylistic matchup for Houston.  Houston hates playing the slow, methodical half court game that SMU will force upon them.  The Mustangs have enough size up front and bangers on the inside to make it work.  SMU may not have the most talented players in college hoops, but they have been effective this season at making opposing teams play at their style and tempo.

The Mustangs have been a good pointspread team this season, particularly in Conference USA play where they’re 9-3 against the number.  They’re 9-2-1 ATS in their L12 lined games, while Houston has been a pointspread money loser of late going 4-6 ATS in their L10.  At home, we’ll look for SMU to dictate tempo and win this game.

PLAY SMU PICK OVER HOUSTON

 
Bookmark and Share

Leave a Reply

 
Best US Sportsbook
Exclusive Betting Bonus

5dimes


Sports Betting 101
Latest Sports News