For a team with their sights set on a National Championship, a conference title game can frequently become a very dangerous ‘lookahead’ spot.  One team views the conference title matchup as a huge accomplishment, while another sees it as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.  That dynamic has been evident in the SEC title game in the past, but this season its a bit different with both Florida and Alabama entering the contest undefeated.  It is at play, however, in the Big 12 Championship game between Nebraska and Texas:

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:  NEBRASKA VS. TEXAS

Texas is an excellent team, no doubt, and they have every reason to think they deserve a shot at the BCS Championship with a win here against Nebraska.  More problematic, however, for us sports handicapping types is the pointspread on the game.  The Longhorns have been installed as a -14 or -14′ favorite here (and the half point could be very important as you should know by now if you’ve been paying attention) and that’s a sizable margin for Texas to cover in what is something of a ‘lookahead spot’ to a BCS title matchup with either Florida or Alabama.

In our handicap of Thursday night’s ‘Civil War’ game between Oregon and Oregon State, we talked about the relative parity in the quality of the two school’s football programs and such is the case here.  Nebraska might be ‘down’ somewhat from their dominance of the past, but in terms of the quality of player they attract to the program they’re a lot closer to Texas than this price would suggest.  Furthermore, a win here would not only keep one of their hated rivals *out* of the national championship scenario (which can’t be dismissed as a motivating factor) it would also enhance their own bowl bid.

The reality is that in head to head matchups between these two teams the games have been very competitive.  Texas has won 7 of the last 8 straight up, but has only a 4-3 ATS advantage.  The most recent matchups further underscore the relative parity between Texas and Nebraska, with three of the last four meetings having been decided by three points or less.  This includes the last time the two teams played, when Texas won 28-25 in October 2007.

A lot has to go right for Nebraska for them to win this game outright, but we don’t need them to do that to cash our bets.  They just need to be competitive and on a neutral field at Cowboys’ Stadium playing against a team with a lot to lose we think they’ve got a great chance to keep this one within the pointspread. As noted above, try and find a +14′ on the game since you’ll have the half point working for you on a ‘key number’

PLAY NEBRASKA +14′ OVER TEXAS