Now that we’ve discussed some of the basic handicapping strategies against the NFL pointspread, we’ll take a look at NFL over/under totals.

The best way to understand how to play totals is to understand how the numbers are set.  It’s a pretty basic process—a function of the points scored and allowed for each team divided in two.  Bookmakers will adjust these numbers due to injuries, weather conditions, matchups, style of play of the teams involved and, of course, public perception.

So let’s take a look at some of these factors:

Injuries: In my opinion, injuries are the most overvalued component of the NFL pointspread both for sides and totals.  This is especially the case when an injury occurs to a starting quarterback.  The kneejerk reaction to a quarterback injury is for the bookmaker to post a slightly lower total and for players to look to go ‘under.  I like to do the opposite and consider these great opportunities to play on the ‘over’.   In most cases, backup NFL quarterbacks are fairly competent and can move the football.  They also have a tendency to want to ‘make things happen’ to put themselves in a position to compete for the starting spot sooner or later.  As a result, one of two things will occur:  either they’ll make the plays and put points on the board, or they won’t make the plays and the opposing team will put points on the board.  In any case, drill this through your brain right now and remember that key injuries in the NFL aren’t an automatic justification to go against that team or to go ‘under’ the total.

Weather: The prevailing weather conditions can play a part in a team’s ability to move the football and score but not necessarily in the ways you might think.  Of course extreme weather circumstances like blizzards or hurricane like conditions are one thing, but on a week to week basis you might be surprised what many successful totals players are most concerned about:  wind.  The novice bettor will see that there’s rain or snow in the forecast and automatically play ‘under’ the total.  The reality is that these conditions can often result in higher scores than would occur without them.  Sloppy conditions make turnovers more likely, and on some surfaces defensive backs have a harder time playing pass coverage if it’s rainy or slippery.  Heavy and particularly gusty winds will really mess with a team’s offensive rhythm, and the more dependent on the pass they are the more pronounced this will be.  A good quarterback can throw the football in the rain or snow, but not in a 30 MPH crosswind.  Good quarterbacks won’t even try, keeping the game on the ground which does result in lower scores.  The impact of weather conditions on sporting events is much more complex than just assuming that bad weather means a play on the ‘under’.

High or low totals: Here’s some advice I received early in my handicapping career that has stood me well over the years.  Don’t be fooled into automatically playing ‘under’ a total just because it’s high or ‘over’ a total just because it’s low.  In fact, a successful sports bettor once told me that you could do a lot worse on a daily basis than finding the highest total on the board and going ‘over’, and finding the lowest total on the board and going ‘under’.  I’ve never measured the effectiveness of this strategy long term, but his point is a good one.  Totals are high or low for a reason, and playing a big total ‘under’ or a low total ‘over’ just because it ‘looks easy’ is a foolish approach.