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Baseball Betting Free Picks: A Sox Of A Different Color – SportsUntapped.com
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Added April 8th, 2010 by David Glisan

Baseball Betting Free Picks:  A Sox Of A Different Color
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Good start to our baseball betting selections here at Sports Untapped as the Yankees took care of business against the Red Sox.  We’ll stay in the American League today as the Cleveland Indians finish up their series with the Chicago White Sox.  And check out today’s MLB ink–someone has a tat of a retro White Sox logo (as opposed to the intentionally retro logo the team currently uses).  To the best of my knowledge its not Harold Baines sporting this ink, but no doubt he’d be proud.


Early season baseball handicapping is a challenge for both the player and the bookmaker.  Until teams get a decent number of games under their belt, you’re trying to extrapolate what teams did last year to this year as well as trying to detect trends and tendencies before they develop.  Bookmakers, out of necessity, have a tendency to overreact to what happens in the early going and on our side of the counter we can frequently get good value by not overreacting to these overreactions.

Today’s game is a good case in point.  In theory, I would have liked to have used the White Sox throughout this series but they were simply priced out of consideration in the first two games of the series.  I expect the White Sox to win their division, and for Cleveland to come in last.  When you handicap baseball you often look at the entire series and think ‘hmm…I look for Team A to take at least 2 of 3 from Team B’ and bet accordingly.  If you can bet all three games at a decent price and your team takes 2 of 3 you make a small profit, and if they sweep you make a hefty profit.  I had the White Sox penciled in on my legal pad to take at least two of three in this series.

But a funny thing has happened in today’s third game of the series.  The White Sox are a much smaller favorite than I would have expected.  Some of this is due to the fact that the Tribe has managed a split in the first two games, and some of this is due to Cleveland’s starter–talented youngster Justin Masterson, who could be a future star.  Masterson was dealt to the Tribe from Boston midway through the 2009 season and pitched very well in two late season starts against the ChiSox.

Of course its worth noting that Cleveland was 0-2 in those two starts despite Masterson allowing only 2 earned runs.  And that’s what this handicap comes back to–we like Masterson a lot but as a team we don’t see much improvement in the 2010 Indians.  Cleveland lost more money for bettors than any team in baseball last year (just over 31.5 units) and they could surpass that this season.  We’ll take the White Sox at a reasonable price.


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