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With four days left in the regular season, the four American League playoff teams are set, but the matchups are not. While the New York Yankees will likely be the wild card and have to win two series on the road to make it back to the World Series, Vegas has the Bronx Bombers as +150 favorites to repeat as American League champions. Here’s a slightly premature look at all four teams.
New York Yankees (+150 to win AL, +300 to win World Series)
The Yankees would start the playoffs at Minnesota as the wild card, or at home against the Rangers as AL East champs. Here’s their head-to-head record against the other three playoff teams:
- vs. Twins: 5-2 overall, 3-1 on the road
- vs. Rangers: 4-4 overall, 2-1 at home
- vs. Devil Rays 8-10 overall, 4-5 on the road
The Yankees didn’t have much trouble with the Twins in last year’s playoffs, so even though the Twins have been dominant at home, the Yankees will likely have to beat themselves not to advance to the ALCS. Still, the Yankees have never won a postseason series as a wild card team.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+200 AL, +400 WS)
Like the Yankees, the Devil Rays as AL East champs would start the playoffs at home against the Rangers, or as the wild card on the road at the Twins.
- vs. Rangers: 4-2 overall, 3-0 at home
- vs. Twins: 5-3 overall, 3-1 on the road
- vs. Yankees: 10-8 overall, 5-4 at home
In 2008, the Devil Rays won a tight AL East race with the defending World Series champion Red Sox, and won two series against the Sox in September before beating them in the ALCS. This year, the Devil Rays will likely hold on to win a close division race over the defending champion Yankees, after going 4-3 against the Yankees in September. I don’t see either the Twins or Rangers winning more than one game against Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have plenty of reasons to worry about a potential ALCS matchup with the younger, deeper Devil Rays.
Minnesota Twins (+333 AL, +700 WS)
- vs. Yankees: 2-5 overall, 1-3 at home
- vs. Devil Rays: 3-5 overall, 1-3 at home
- vs. Rangers: 7-3 overall, 6-0 at home
As good as the Twins have been in their new outdoor home, they haven’t been very good against the best teams in the American League, and that’s who will almost certainly beat them and likely sweep them in the first round of the playoffs.
Texas Rangers (+450 AL, +1000 WS)
The Rangers have had a double-digit lead in the AL West for most of the summer, but will likely only avoid getting swept if Cliff Lee pitches extremely well.
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Can you get any more bias?…