Steroid-tainted slugger Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th career home run on Wednesday, becoming the seventh player in Major League history to reach the milestone and the first admitted steroid user.  As attention mounted on A-Rod in his nearly two-week long quest to go from 599 to 600 career home runs, the socially inept superstar needed to remind people he had only hit 16 home runs this season.

Is that just embarrassment at his struggles — or does he really think his power is gone?

A-Rod hit career home run #500 exactly three years before #600.  At that rate he hits his 700th in 2013 at age 38 and gets to 763 in 2015 at age 40.

But home run #600 was only A-Rod’s 17th of the season in his 101st game played.  At that rate, he’ll only hit 25 home runs this year — his lowest total since hitting 23 in 1997 at age 21.  And if he’s only a 25 homer per year guy now, he won’t reach 700 until 2014 at age 39 and won’t get to 763 until 2017 when he’s 42.

But wait, there’s more.  A-Rod hit 54 home runs in 2007, then 35 in 2008 and 30 in 2009. If he drops to 25 in 2010, that’s a pretty clear pattern:

• 2011, 20 home runs, 628 career home runs, moves past Sammy Sosa for 6th all-time
• 2012, 15 HR, 643 career HR, moves past Ken Griffey Jr. for 5th all-time
• 2013, 10 HR, 653 career HR
• 2014, 5 HR, 658 career HR
• 2015, 0 HR, 658 career HR, retires when he realizes he’ll never even get to Willie Mays at 660